Routine immunization (RI) of children is the most effective and timely public health intervention for decreasing child mortality rates around the globe. Pakistan being a low-and-middle-income-country (LMIC) has one of the highest child mortality rates in the world occurring mainly due to vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). For improving RI coverage, a critical need is to establish potential RI defaulters at an early stage, so that appropriate interventions can be targeted towards such population who are identified to be at risk of missing on their scheduled vaccine uptakes. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) based predictive model has been proposed to predict defaulting and non-defaulting children on upcoming immunization visits and examine the effect of its underlying contributing factors. The predictive model uses data obtained from Paigham-e-Sehat study having immunization records of 3,113 children. The design of predictive model is based on obtaining optimal results across accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity, to ensure model outcomes remain practically relevant to the problem addressed. Further optimization of predictive model is obtained through selection of significant features and removing data bias. Nine machine learning algorithms were applied for prediction of defaulting children for the next immunization visit. The results showed that the random forest model achieves the optimal accuracy of 81.9% with 83.6% sensitivity and 80.3% specificity. The main determinants of vaccination coverage were found to be vaccine coverage at birth, parental education, and socio-economic conditions of the defaulting group. This information can assist relevant policy makers to take proactive and effective measures for developing evidence based targeted and timely interventions for defaulting children.
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Background: The immunization uptake rates in Pakistan are much lower than desired. Major reasons include lack of awareness, parental forgetfulness regarding schedules, and misinformation regarding vaccines. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic and distancing measures, routine childhood immunization (RCI) coverage has been adversely affected, as caregivers avoid tertiary care hospitals or primary health centers. Innovative and cost-effective measures must be taken to understand and deal with the issue of low immunization rates. However, only a few smartphone-based interventions have been carried out in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to improve RCI. Objective: The primary objectives of this study are to evaluate whether a personalized mobile app can improve children’s on-time visits at 10 and 14 weeks of age for RCI as compared with standard care and to determine whether an artificial intelligence model can be incorporated into the app. Secondary objectives are to determine the perceptions and attitudes of caregivers regarding childhood vaccinations and to understand the factors that might influence the effect of a mobile phone–based app on vaccination improvement. Methods: A mixed methods randomized controlled trial was designed with intervention and control arms. The study will be conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital vaccination center. Caregivers of newborns or infants visiting the center for their children’s 6-week vaccination will be recruited. The intervention arm will have access to a smartphone app with text, voice, video, and pictorial messages regarding RCI. This app will be developed based on the findings of the pretrial qualitative component of the study, in addition to no-show study findings, which will explore caregivers’ perceptions about RCI and a mobile phone–based app in improving RCI coverage. Results: Pretrial qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted in February 2020. Enrollment of study participants for the randomized controlled trial is in process. Study exit interviews will be conducted at the 14-week immunization visits, provided the caregivers visit the immunization facility at that time, or over the phone when the children are 18 weeks of age. Conclusions: This study will generate useful insights into the feasibility, acceptability, and usability of an Android-based smartphone app for improving RCI in Pakistan and in LMICs.
Background: Physical activity is an important intervention for improving disease-related symptoms and systemic manifestations in rheumatic and musculoskeletal disease (RMDs). However, studies suggest that RMD patients report that the lack of individualized and consistent information about physical activity from managing doctors and healthcare professionals, acts as a barrier for engagement. On the other hand, managing doctors and healthcare professionals report lack of knowledge in this area and thus lack of confidence to educate and advise RMD patients about the beneficial effects of physical activity. The aim of the present study therefore, is to develop two e-Learning courses for RMD doctors and health professionals: a) the first one to provide consistent information about the collective benefits of physical activity in RMDs and b) the second on how to implement physical activity advice in routine clinical practice. Methods: An international collaboration of seven countries, consisting of one academic institution and one patient organization from each country, will co-develop the two e-Learning courses. The final e-Learning courses will primarily target to improve – through physical activity advice – RMD symptoms which are important for patients. Discussion: The main result of this study will be to co-develop two e-Learning courses that can be used by managing RMD doctors and healthcare professionals to be made aware of the overall benefits of physical activity in RMDs as well as how to implement physical activity advise within their practice.
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