BACKGROUND: Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them.METHODS: Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined.RESULTS: We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small.CONCLUSIONS: We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.
Objective. There are no Dutch language disease-specific questionnaires for patients with patellofemoral pain syndrome available that could help Dutch physiotherapists to assess and monitor these symptoms and functional limitations. The aim of this study was to translate the original disease-specific Kujala Patellofemoral Score into Dutch and evaluate its reliability. Methods. The questionnaire was translated from English into Dutch in accordance with internationally recommended guidelines. Reliability was determined in 50 stable subjects with an interval of 1 week. The patient inclusion criteria were age between 14 and 60 years; knowledge of the Dutch language; and the presence of at least three of the following symptoms: pain while taking the stairs, pain when squatting, pain when running, pain when cycling, pain when sitting with knees flexed for a prolonged period, grinding of the patella and a positive clinical patella test. The internal consistency, test–retest reliability, measurement error and limits of agreement were calculated. Results. Internal consistency was 0.78 for the first assessment and 0.80 for the second assessment. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICCagreement) between the first and second assessments was 0.98. The mean difference between the first and second measurements was 0.64, and standard deviation was 5.51. The standard error measurement was 3.9, and the smallest detectable change was 11. The Bland and Altman plot shows that the limits of agreement are 10.37 and 11.65. Conclusions. The results of the present study indicated that the test–retest reliability translated Dutch version of the Kujala Patellofemoral Score questionnaire is equivalent of the test– retest original English language version and has good internal consistency. Trial registration NTR (TC = 3258). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The Nutri-Score front-of-pack label, which classifies the nutritional quality of products in one of 5 classes (A to E), is one of the main candidates for standardized front-of-pack labeling in the EU. The algorithm underpinning the Nutri-Score label is derived from the Food Standard Agency (FSA) nutrient profile model, originally a binary model developed to regulate the marketing of foods to children in the UK. This review describes the development and validation process of the Nutri-Score algorithm. While the Nutri-Score label is one of the most studied front-of-pack labels in the EU, its validity and applicability in the European context is still undetermined. For several European countries, content validity (i.e., ability to rank foods according to healthfulness) has been evaluated. Studies showed Nutri-Score's ability to classify foods across the board of the total food supply, but did not show the actual healthfulness of products within different classes. Convergent validity (i.e., ability to categorize products in a similar way as other systems such as dietary guidelines) was assessed with the French dietary guidelines; further adaptations of the Nutri-Score algorithm seem needed to ensure alignment with food-based dietary guidelines across the EU. Predictive validity (i.e., ability to predict disease risk when applied to population dietary data) could be re-assessed after adaptations are made to the algorithm. Currently, seven countries have implemented or aim to implement Nutri-Score. These countries appointed an international scientific committee to evaluate Nutri-Score, its underlying algorithm and its applicability in a European context. With this review, we hope to contribute to the scientific and political discussions with respect to nutrition labeling in the EU.
MULTIFILE
Regular physical activity is considered to be an important component of a healthy lifestyle that decreases the risk of coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus type 2, hypertension, colon and breast cancer, obesity and other debilitating conditions. Physical activity can also improve functional capacity and therefore also the quality of life in older adults. Despite all these favorable aspects, a substantial part of the Dutch older adult population is still underactive or even sedentary. To change this for the better, the Groningen Active Living Model (GALM) was developed.Aim of GALM is to stimulate recreational sports activities in sedentary and underactive older adults in the 55-65 age band. After a door-to-door visit as part of an intensive recruitment phase, a fitness test was conducted followed by the GALM recreational sports program. This program was based on principles from evolutionary-biological play theory and insights fromsocial cognitive theory. The program was versatile in nature (e.g. softball, dance, self-defense, swimming, athletics, etc.) in two main ways: a) to improve compliance with the program different sports were offered, which was reported to be more appealing for older adults; b) by aiming at more components of motor fitness (e.g. strength, flexibility, speed, endurance and coordination). Between 1997 and 2005 more than 552,000 persons were visited door-to-door, over 55,700 were tested, and 41,310 participated in the GALM recreational sports program. The aim of the present thesis is to determine the effects of participation in the GALM recreational sports program on physical activity, health and fitness outcomes.Chapter 2 describes the effectiveness of the GALM recruitment in selecting and recruiting sedentary and underactive older adults. Three municipalities in the Netherlands were selected, and in every municipality four neighborhoods were included. Two of each of the four neighborhoods were randomly assigned as intervention and the others as control neighborhoods. In total, 8,504 persons were mailed and received a home visit. During this home visit the GALM recruitment questionnaire was collected on which the selection between sedentary/underactive and physically active older adults was based. Ultimately we succeeded inincluding 12.3% (315 of the 2,551 qualifying) of the older adults, 79.4% of whom could be indeed considered sedentary or underactive. The cost of successfully recruiting an older adult was estimated at $84.To assess the effects of a physical activity intervention on health and fitness and explain the results, it is necessary to know program characteristics regarding frequency, intensity, time and content of the activities. With respect to the GALM recreational sports activity program, the only unknown characteristic was intensity. Chapter 3 describes the intensity of this program systematically. Using heart rate monitors, data of 97 persons (mean age 60.1 yr) were collected in three municipalities. The mean intensity of all 15 GALM sessions was 73.7% of the predicted maximal heart rate. Six percent of the monitored heart rate time could be classified as light, 33% as moderate and 61% as hard. In summary, the GALM recreational sports program meets the 1998 ACSM recommendations for intensity necessary to improve cardiorespiratory fitness.Chapters 4 and 5 describe the effects of 6 and 12 months of participation in the GALM recreational sports program, and 181 persons were followed over time. Results after 6 months revealed only few significant between-group differences favoring the intervention group (i.e. sleep, diastolic blood pressure, perceived fitness score and grip strength). Changes in energyexpenditure for leisure-time physical activities (EELTPA) showed an increase in both study groups. From 6 to 12 months a decrease in EELTPA occurred in the intervention group and an increase in the control group. The significant positive time effects for the health outcomes (diastolic blood pressure, BMI, percentage of body fat) that were found after 6 months were diminishedfrom 6 to 12 months. However, the energy expenditure for recreational sports activities (EERECSPORT) demonstrated a continuous increase over 12 months. Parallel to this, significant main effects for time were found in performance-based fitness outcomes (i.e. simple reaction time, leg strength, flexibility of hamstrings and lower back, and aerobic endurance). After 12 months only a significant between-group difference for flexibility of the hamstrings andlower back was found, favoring the control group. In conclusion, a short-term increase in EELTPA was found with accompanying improvements in health outcomes that more or less disappeared in 6 to 12 months. In the long term, results showed a continuous increase in EERECSPORT and performance-based fitness. This latter increase is probably a reflection of the significantimprovement over time in EERECSPORT and the fact that recreational sports activities are of a higher intensity.Aerobic endurance is regarded as the most important component of motor fitness that is relevant for older adults to function independently. In Chapter 6, the development in aerobic endurance after 18 months of participation in the GALM recreational sports program was assessed by means of changes in heart rate during fixed submaximal exercise. Since both groups were comparable regarding changes in energy expenditure for physical activity after 6 months and testing confirmed this, both groups were combined and considered as one group. Multilevel analyses were conducted and models for change were developed. A significant decrease in heart rate over time was found at all walking speeds (4, 5, 6 and 7 km/h). The average decrease in heart rate was 5.5, 6.0, 10.0 and 9.0 beats/min for the 4, 5, 6 and 7 km/h walking speeds, respectively. The relative decrease varied from 5.1 to 7.4% relative to average heart rates at baseline. These results illustrate that participation in the GALM recreational sports program has a positive significant effect on aerobic endurance, and that the participants are able to perform at submaximal intensity more easily.Based on the overall results it can be concluded that this study contributes to the field in how to effectively recruit sedentary and underactive older adults and stimulate them to become and stay active in recreational sports activities. As far as we know, this recruitment in combination with the recreational sport program is not only unique but also effective toward increasing performance-based fitness in the long term. Short-term effects were found in other leisure-time activities and health outcomes. To further stimulate other leisure-time and probably health outcomes besides the favorable effects that were already seen, additional interventions that pay more attention to behavioral change in terms of how to integrate other activities besides sports activities are recommended.
