Thirty to sixty per cent of older patients experience functional decline after hospitalisation, associated with an increase in dependence, readmission, nursing home placement and mortality. First step in prevention is the identification of patients at risk. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model to assess the risk of functional decline in older hospitalised patients.
A growing number of older patients undergo cardiac surgery. Some of these patients are at increased risk of post-operative functional decline, potentially leading to reduced quality of life and autonomy, and other negative health outcomes. First step in prevention is to identify patients at risk of functional decline. There are no current published tools available to predict functional decline following cardiac surgery. The objective was to validate the identification of seniors at risk—hospitalised patients (ISAR-HP), in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery. A multicenter cohort study was performed in cardiac surgery wards of two university hospitals with follow-up 3 months after hospital admission. Inclusion criteria: consecutive cardiac surgery patients, aged ≥65. Functional decline was defined as a decline of at least one point on the Katz ADL Index at follow-up compared with preadmission status.
Maintaining independence is the most important goal of the majority of older people. The onset of disability in activities of daily living is one of the greatest threats to the ability of older people to live independently. Older people with a low socioeconomic status (SES) are at high risk of functional decline. It is unclear what predicts functional decline in older people with a low SES. The aim of this study was to determine predictors of 12-month functional decline in community-living older people with low SES in the Netherlands. Functional decline was defined as the inability to perform (instrumental) activities of daily living. A prognostic multicentre study was conducted, using data from The Dutch Older Persons and Informal Caregivers Survey Minimum DataSet. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted, using a stepwise backward selection process. Performance of the model was expressed by discrimination, calibration and accuracy. A total of 4.370 participants were included. The mean age of the participants was 80 years and 58.9% were female. Functional decline was present in 1486 participants (34.0%). Ten predictors were independently associated with the outcome. Dementia was the strongest predictor (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.04–3.23). Other predictors were age, education, poor health, quality of life rate, arthrosis/arthritis, hearing problems, anxiety/panic disorder, pain and less social activities. The final model showed an acceptable discrimination (C-statistic 0.69, 95% CI 0.67–0.70), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value 0.33) and accuracy (Brier score 0.20). Further research is needed to examine how functional decline can be ameliorated in this population.
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