In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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Rembang Regency is one of the regencies in Central Java that often experiences drought. Based on the results of the mapping of drought-prone areas for 2020 carried out by the Rembang Regency government, there are 63 villages spread across 14 sub-districts, 18,885 families are recorded as experiencing drought. Kaliori District is one of the sub-districts in Rembang Regency that is affected by drought, this sub-district consists of 23 villages and is directly adjacent to the north of Java Sea. The purpose of this research is to be able to do a mapping for planning sustainable drought solutions, obtain quantitative data on drought and stages of drought management. The stages of the research carried out were site surveys and interviews related to drought in the Kaliori area. Prior to the Focus Group Discussion (FGD), a questionnaire was prepared. This research was conducted through joint FGD with all village heads in Kaliori District regarding water drought in Rembang. Based on the FGD and the statistical analysis results, it was found that 70% of Kaliori District experienced drought. When there is a drought, generally villages in Kaliori sub-district use water from water tanks and some use wells of poor quality and having a salty taste. The majority of villages in Kaliori Sub-district experienced a drought that lasted for 4-5 months of a year. Several parties involved in dealing with drought in Kaliori Sub-district included PAMSIMAS, Karang Taruna, Banser, Paguyuban, and P3A. Some solutions proposed are river connection, estuary river gate, and reservoir optimation.
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European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.
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Wet and healthy peatlands have a strong natural potential to save carbon and, due to their waterbuffering capacity, play an important role in managing periods of excessive rains or droughts. Yet, inNWE regions large areas of peatlands are drained for peat mining, agriculture or forestry, whichmakes them CO2 emission sources rather than sinks. By restoring the capacity to buffer carbon andwater, BUFFER+ partners aim at climate change adaptation and mitigation in NWE regions, while atthe same time restore biodiversity and create new revenue streams.BUFFER+ involves 21 partners and 7 Associated Organisations from regions
Climate change is increasing the challenges for water management worldwide. Extreme weather conditions, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, are increasingly limiting the availability of water, especially for agriculture. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer potential solutions. They help to collect and infiltrate rainwater and thus play an important role in climate adaptation.Green infrastructure, such as rain gardens (sunken plant beds) and wadis (sunken grass fields for temporary storage of rainwater), help to restore the urban water balance. They reduce rainwater runoff, stabilize groundwater levels and solve problems with soil moisture and temperature. Despite these advantages, there is still much ignorance in practice about the possibilities of NBS. To remedy this, freely accessible knowledge modules are being developed that can help governments and future employees to better understand the application of these solutions. This research, called GINA (Green Infrastructure in Urban Areas), aims to create more sustainable and climate-resilient cities by developing and sharing knowledge about NBS, and supports local governments and students in effectively deploying these green infrastructures.
