Global leaders agree on the need to substantially decarbonize the global economy by 2050. This paper compares potential costs associated with different policy pathways to achieve tourism sector emission reduction ambitions (−50% by 2035) and transform the sector to be part of the mid-century decarbonized economy (−70% by 2050). Investment in emissions abatement within the tourism sector, combined with strategic external carbon offsets, was found to be approximately 5% more cost effective over the period 2015–2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. The cost to achieve the −50% target through abatement and strategic offsetting, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020 and 3.6% in 2050. Distributed equally among all tourists (international and domestic), the cost of a low-carbon tourism sector is estimated at US$11 per trip, equivalent to many current travel fees or taxes. Exclusive reliance on offsetting would expose the sector to extensive and continued carbon liability costs beyond mid-century and could be perceived as climate inaction, increasing reputational risks and the potential for less efficient regulatory interventions that could hinder sustainable tourism development. Effective tourism sector leadership is needed to develop a strategic tourism policy framework and emission measurement and reporting system.
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Climate change has been described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time, not only for mankind (UN, 2011), but also for tourism (OECD-UNEP, 2011). Severe impacts of climate change, generally linked to exceeding 2°C global temperature rise, can only be prevented to some extent by drastically reducing the use of fossil fuels and thereby greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the next few decades. In this respect, an 80-95 per cent reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 1990/2000 levels is recognised as the minimum required effort (Allison et al., 2009; Rogelj et al., 2011). Even with a full implementation of these goals, an increase above 2°C is not unlikely (World Bank, 2012). The contribution of global tourism to anthropogenic CO2 emissions has been estimated at around 5 per cent for 2005, corresponding to 1,302 Mt CO2, 75 per cent of which were from transport and 40 per cent from aviation alone. Tourism’s CO2 emissions are estimated to increase 135 per cent (to 3,000 Mt CO2) by 2035, which includes the high efficiency gains forecasted for air transport (Peeters and Dubois, 2010; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008). The share of aviation will increase as air travel is expected to grow faster than overall tourism trips (ICAO, 2010; UNWTO, 2011). Emission scenarios for civil aviation vary from 1,034 to 3,105 Mt CO2 for 2050 (Lee et al., 2013). The further development of tourism CO2 emissions is in stark contrast to the aforementioned global emission reduction needs. In fact, when assuming this business-as-usual growth path, tourism would exceed the global economy’s reduced emission budget by midcentury on its own (Scott et al., 2010). Given these developments it is not surprising that some regard the (mainstream) tourism industry as becoming less sustainable (Bramwell and Lane, 2012; Buckley, 2012; Gössling et al., 2012). In acknowledgement of the limited short-term energy reduction potential of technological improvements in aviation and the absence of short-term structural changes in travel behaviour, carbon offsetting has been accepted as an intermediate, albeit less effective solution for mitigating tourism emissions. This research aims to register the motives for buying offsets, but more particularly the effect of offsetting, as well as not offsetting, on the travel behaviour of Dutch tourists.
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Tourism is on course to thwart humanity’s efforts to reach a zero carbon economy because of its high growth rates and carbon intensity. To get out of its carbon predicament, the tourism sector needs professionals with carbon literacy and carbon capability. Providing future professionals in the full spectrum of tourism-related study programmes with the necessary knowledge and skills is essential. This article reports on ten years of experience at a BSc tourism programme with a carbon footprint exercise in which students calculate the carbon footprint of their latest holiday, compare their results with others and reflect on options to reduce emissions. Before they start, the students are provided with a handout with emission factors, a brief introduction and a sample calculation. The carbon footprints usually differ by a factor of 20 to 30 between the highest and lowest. Distance, transport mode and length of stay are almost automatically identified as the main causes, and as the main keys for drastically reducing emissions. The link to the students’ own experience makes the exercise effective, the group comparison makes it fun. As the exercise requires no prior knowledge and is suitable for almost any group size, it can be integrated into almost any tourism-related study programme.
