Purpose: Lactate is an established prognosticator in critical care. However, there still is insufficient evidence about its role in predicting outcome in COVID-19. This is of particular concern in older patients who have been mostly affected during the initial surge in 2020. Methods: This prospective international observation study (The COVIP study) recruited patients aged 70 years or older (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04321265) admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19 disease from March 2020 to February 2021. In addition to serial lactate values (arterial blood gas analysis), we recorded several parameters, including SOFA score, ICU procedures, limitation of care, ICU- and 3-month mortality. A lactate concentration ≥ 2.0 mmol/L on the day of ICU admission (baseline) was defined as abnormal. The primary outcome was ICU-mortality. The secondary outcomes 30-day and 3-month mortality. Results: In total, data from 2860 patients were analyzed. In most patients (68%), serum lactate was lower than 2 mmol/L. Elevated baseline serum lactate was associated with significantly higher ICU- and 3-month mortality (53% vs. 43%, and 71% vs. 57%, respectively, p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, the maximum lactate concentration on day 1 was independently associated with ICU mortality (aOR 1.06 95% CI 1.02–1.11; p = 0.007), 30-day mortality (aOR 1.07 95% CI 1.02–1.13; p = 0.005) and 3-month mortality (aOR 1.15 95% CI 1.08–1.24; p < 0.001) after adjustment for age, gender, SOFA score, and frailty. In 826 patients with baseline lactate ≥ 2 mmol/L sufficient data to calculate the difference between maximal levels on days 1 and 2 (∆ serum lactate) were available. A decreasing lactate concentration over time was inversely associated with ICU mortality after multivariate adjustment for SOFA score, age, Clinical Frailty Scale, and gender (aOR 0.60 95% CI 0.42–0.85; p = 0.004). Conclusion: In critically ill old intensive care patients suffering from COVID-19, lactate and its kinetics are valuable tools for outcome prediction. Trial registration number: NCT04321265.
BACKGROUND: The SpO2/FiO2 is a useful oxygenation parameter with prognostic capacity in patients with ARDS. We investigated the prognostic capacity of SpO2/FiO2 for mortality in patients with ARDS due to COVID-19.METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of a national multicenter cohort study in invasively ventilated patients with ARDS due to COVID-19. The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality.RESULTS: In 869 invasively ventilated patients, 28-day mortality was 30.1%. The SpO2/FiO2 on day 1 had no prognostic value. The SpO2/FiO2 on day 2 and day 3 had prognostic capacity for death, with the best cut-offs being 179 and 199, respectively. Both SpO2/FiO2 on day 2 (OR, 0.66 [95%-CI 0.46-0.96]) and on day 3 (OR, 0.70 [95%-CI 0.51-0.96]) were associated with 28-day mortality in a model corrected for age, pH, lactate levels and kidney dysfunction (AUROC 0.78 [0.76-0.79]). The measured PaO2/FiO2 and the PaO2/FiO2 calculated from SpO2/FiO2 were strongly correlated (Spearman's r = 0.79).CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with ARDS due to COVID-19, the SpO2/FiO2 on day 2 and day 3 are independently associated with and have prognostic capacity for 28-day mortality. The SpO2/FiO2 is a useful metric for risk stratification in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients.
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BackgroundFluid therapy is a common intervention in critically ill patients. It is increasingly recognised that deresuscitation is an essential part of fluid therapy and delayed deresuscitation is associated with longer invasive ventilation and length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay. However, optimal timing and rate of deresuscitation remain unclear. Lung ultrasound (LUS) may be used to identify fluid overload. We hypothesise that daily LUS-guided deresuscitation is superior to deresuscitation without LUS in critically ill patients expected to undergo invasive ventilation for more than 24 h in terms of ventilator free-days and being alive at day 28.MethodsThe “effect of lung ultrasound-guided fluid deresuscitation on duration of ventilation in intensive care unit patients” (CONFIDENCE) is a national, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in adult critically ill patients that are expected to be invasively ventilated for at least 24 h. Patients with conditions that preclude a negative fluid balance or LUS examination are excluded. CONFIDENCE will operate in 10 ICUs in the Netherlands and enrol 1000 patients. After hemodynamic stabilisation, patients assigned to the intervention will receive daily LUS with fluid balance recommendations. Subjects in the control arm are deresuscitated at the physician’s discretion without the use of LUS. The primary endpoint is the number of ventilator-free days and being alive at day 28. Secondary endpoints include the duration of invasive ventilation; 28-day mortality; 90-day mortality; ICU, in hospital and total length of stay; cumulative fluid balance on days 1–7 after randomisation and on days 1–7 after start of LUS examination; mean serum lactate on days 1–7; the incidence of reintubations, chest drain placement, atrial fibrillation, kidney injury (KDIGO stadium ≥ 2) and hypernatremia; the use of invasive hemodynamic monitoring, and chest-X-ray; and quality of life at day 28.DiscussionThe CONFIDENCE trial is the first RCT comparing the effect of LUS-guided deresuscitation to routine care in invasively ventilated ICU patients. If proven effective, LUS-guided deresuscitation could improve outcomes in some of the most vulnerable and resource-intensive patients in a manner that is non-invasive, easy to perform, and well-implementable.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05188092. Registered since January 12, 2022
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