In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
MULTIFILE
World globalisation drives companies to undertake international expansion with the aim of retaining or growing their businesses. When companies globalize, managers encounter new challenges in making international marketing strategy (IMS) decisions, which are influenced by perceived cultural and business distance between their home- and foreign country. Telkom Indonesia International (Telin) was formed by Telkom Indonesia (i.e. the state-owned company in the telecommunication industry in Indonesia) to engage in international business within a global market. The central question in this study is to what extent do managers’ perceived cultural and business distance between home- and foreign country influence their IMS decisions? A mixed research strategy will be employed by applying qualitative and quantitative methods concurrently. The data collection will involve interviews with CEOs and managers, alongside a web survey to 55 managers of Telkom's. Results suggest important consequences for IMS decisions and emphasizes the need for dialogue on perceptions of cultural and business characteristics of countries.
Effects of climate change in cities are evident and are expected to increase in the future, demanding adaptation. In order to share knowledge, raise awareness, and build capacity on climate adaptation, the first concept of a “ClimateCafé” has been utilized since 2012 in 25 events all over the world. In 8 years ClimateCafé grew into a field education concept involving different fields of science and practice for capacity building in climate change adaptation. This chapter describes the need, method, and results of ClimateCafés and provides tools for organizing a ClimateCafé in a context-specific case. Early ClimateCafés in the Philippines are compared with the ClimateCafé in Peru to elucidate the development of this movement, in which one of the participants of ClimateCafé Philippines 2016 became the co-organizer of ClimateCafé Peru in 2019. The described progress of ClimateCafés provides detailed information on the dynamic methodological aspects, holding different workshops. The workshops aim at generating context-specific data on climate adaptation by using tools and innovative data collection techniques addressing deep uncertainties that come with climate change adaptation. Results of the workshops show that context-specific, relevant, multidisciplinary data can be gathered in a short period of time with limited resources, which promotes the generation of ideas that can be used by local stakeholders in their local context. A ClimateCafé therefore stimulates accelerated climate action and support for adaptation solutions, from the international and the local, from the public and private sector, to ensure we learn from each other and work together for a climate resilient future. The methodology of ClimateCafé is still maturing and the evaluation of the ClimateCafés over time leads to improvements which are applied during upcoming ClimateCafés, giving a clear direction for further development of this methodology for knowledge exchange, capacity building, and bridging the gap between disciplines within climate adaptation.
