Introduction: Few studies have examined the sales of stolen account credentials on darkweb markets. In this study, we tested how advertisement characteristics affect the popularity of illicit online advertisements offering account credentials. Unlike previous criminological research, we take a novel approach by assessing the applicability of knowledge on regular consumer behaviours instead of theories explaining offender behaviour.Methods: We scraped 1,565 unique advertisements offering credentials on a darkweb market. We used this panel data set to predict the simultaneous effects of the asking price, endorsement cues and title elements on advertisement popularity by estimating several hybrid panel data models.Results: Most of our findings disconfirm our hypotheses. Asking price did not affect advertisement popularity. Endorsement cues, including vendor reputation and cumulative sales and views, had mixed and negative relationships, respectively, with advertisement popularity.Discussion: Our results might suggest that account credentials are not simply regular products, but high-risk commodities that, paradoxically, become less attractive as they gain popularity. This study highlights the necessity of a deeper understanding of illicit online market dynamics to improve theories on illicit consumer behaviours and assist cybersecurity experts in disrupting criminal business models more effectively. We propose several avenues for future experimental research to gain further insights into these illicit processes.
Introduction: Few studies have examined the sales of stolen account credentials on darkweb markets. In this study, we tested how advertisement characteristics affect the popularity of illicit online advertisements offering account credentials. Unlike previous criminological research, we take a novel approach by assessing the applicability of knowledge on regular consumer behaviours instead of theories explaining offender behaviour.Methods: We scraped 1,565 unique advertisements offering credentials on a darkweb market. We used this panel data set to predict the simultaneous effects of the asking price, endorsement cues and title elements on advertisement popularity by estimating several hybrid panel data models.Results: Most of our findings disconfirm our hypotheses. Asking price did not affect advertisement popularity. Endorsement cues, including vendor reputation and cumulative sales and views, had mixed and negative relationships, respectively, with advertisement popularity.Discussion: Our results might suggest that account credentials are not simply regular products, but high-risk commodities that, paradoxically, become less attractive as they gain popularity. This study highlights the necessity of a deeper understanding of illicit online market dynamics to improve theories on illicit consumer behaviours and assist cybersecurity experts in disrupting criminal business models more effectively. We propose several avenues for future experimental research to gain further insights into these illicit processes.
Paper presented at the International Sustainability Transitions conference 2018 (12-14 june) Manchester, UK. The Dutch agrifood regime is grinding to a halt. International economic pressures force Dutch farmers to further scale up and intensify their businesses, while food scandals and calamities as well as many and varied negative environmental impacts have led to an all-time low societal acceptance of the agrifood regime as well as a host of legislative measures to stifle further growth. Such a situation, in which regime pressures increasingly undermine the regime, represents a strong call for transition of the Dutch agrifood system.At the same time, new business models emerge: new players arrive, new logistical pathways come to the fore and innovative consumer and farmer relationships – food co-operatives – are forged. In a sense, the transition is already under way (cf. Hermans et al., 2010), with new business models forming an important backbone. However, the way forward is still a matter of great uncertainty and controversy: How do new business models relate to reconfiguring the Dutch agrifood system? We explore the hypothesis that different transition pathways put specific demands on the role of new business models. We studied various new business models in the Dutch agrifood system and their relations to three different transition pathways. Our research combines future exploration (backcasting) and analysis of new business models. In this research, we approach this question from two angles. First, we introduce a transition-oriented business model concept, in order to effectively link new business models to transition. Then we shortly touch upon the transition pathway typology introduced by Geels et al. (2016) and describe three different transition pathways for the Dutch agrifood system. We report on XX business models in each of these transition pathways. The paper ends with a discussion of the role of business models for different types of transition pathways.
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