Background: Increasing life expectancy in high-income countries has been linked to a rise in fall mortality. In the Netherlands, mortality rates from falls have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation in the 1990s. For population health and clinical practice, it is important to foresee the future fall mortality trajectories. Methods: A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period and cohorts born in the periods of 1915–1945. Population data and the numbers of people with accidental fall fatality as underlying cause of death from 1990 to 2021 were derived from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardised mortality rates of unintentional falls per 100 000 population were calculated by year and sex. A log-linear model was used to examine the separate effects of age, period and cohort on the trend in mortality and to produce estimates of future numbers of fall deaths until 2045. Results: While the total population increased by 17% between 1990 and 2021, absolute numbers of fall-related deaths rose by 230% (from 1584 to 5234), which was 251% (an increase of 576 deaths in 1990 to 2021 deaths in 2020) for men and 219% (from 1008 to 3213) for women. Age-standardised figures were higher for women than men and increased more over time. In 2020, 79% of those with death due to falls were over the age of 80, and 35% were 90 years or older. From 2020 to 2045, the observed and projected numbers of fall deaths were 2021 and 7073 for men (250% increase) and 3213 and 12 575 for women (291% increase). Conclusion: Mortality due to falls has increased in the past decades and will continue to rise sharply, mainly caused by growing numbers of older adults, especially those in their 80s and 90s. Contributing risk factors are well known, implementation of preventive measures is a much needed next step. An effective approach to managing elderly people after falls is warranted to reduce crowding in the emergency care and reduce unnecessary long hospital stays.
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Both climate change and human activity are the important drivers that can change hydrological cycle routs and affect the features of hydrological drought in river basins. The current study selects the Zayandeh Rud river Basin as a case study region in which to evaluate the influences of climate alteration and human activity on meteorological and hydrological drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The generated local climatic data of future years (2006–2040), (2041–2075) and (2076–2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from the CMIP5 climate model are selected and used for the hydrology model and water allocation model of WEAP to construct hydrological drought which also consider human activities. The results indicate that significant meteorological drought is expected to occur in the winter and spring months of January to June. However, the driest month for hydrological drought is in the summer and autumn (July to December) (e.g. no changes in seasonality of droughts compared to historic period). It is concluded that, in the results of this work, the human influences on projected hydrological drought have been outlined; they had been missed in many projections for future hydrological drought. However, this study confirms the previous study (Bierkens et al. 2012) which mentioned that human influences can account for future hydrological drought in areas of Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The results attained in this study are beneficial for examining how hydrological drought characterizations respond to climate alteration and human activity on several time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought predicting and water resources management over various time scales under non-stationary circumstances.
ObjectivesIn many Western societies, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate prolonged working. In the Netherlands, the raise of the state pension age is linked to the remaining life expectancy at age 65 with a factor of 2/3rd, and is expected to be 68 years in 2040. It is not yet well understood whether health of the 60+ permits this increase. In this study, health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 is forecasted up to 2040.MethodsData are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey (HIS) 1990-2017 (N≈280.000) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor (PHM) 2016 (N≈460.000). Health is operationalized using binomial scores of 1) self-rated health and 2) limitations in hearing, seeing or mobility. Categories are: good health (healthy on both items), moderate health (healthy on one item) and poor health (unhealthy on both items). First, based on the HIS, health status in 5-year age categories was modelled up to 2040 using logistic regression analysis in R. Second, the growth factor from 2016 to 2040 was applied to the health level from the PHM 2016.ResultsIn 2016, 63% of men aged 60-65 had good health, 25% had moderate health and 12% had poor health. Among women, this distribution was 64%, 22% and 14%, respectively. In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good health, 17-28% in moderate health and 9-12% in poor health. Among women this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively.ConclusionsHealth of Dutch cohorts nearing the state pension age in the future is estimated to remain the same or improve up to 2040. This development in health is not an obstacle to raising the state pension age. However, due to the increasing state pension age and the baby boom generation reaching age 60+ in the coming years, the absolute number of people aged 60+ in poor and moderate health that participates in labor will increase. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will therefore become increasingly important.
Coastal nourishments, where sand from offshore is placed near or at the beach, are nowadays a key coastal protection method for narrow beaches and hinterlands worldwide. Recent sea level rise projections and the increasing involvement of multiple stakeholders in adaptation strategies have resulted in a desire for nourishment solutions that fit a larger geographical scale (O 10 km) and a longer time horizon (O decades). Dutch frontrunner pilot experiments such as the Sandmotor and Ameland inlet nourishment, as well as the Hondsbossche Dunes coastal reinforcement project have all been implemented from this perspective, with the specific aim to encompass solutions that fit in a renewed climate-resilient coastal protection strategy. By capitalizing on recent large-scale nourishments, the proposed Coastal landSCAPE project C-SCAPE will employ and advance the newly developed Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach to construct a sustainable long-term nourishment strategy in the face of an uncertain future, linking climate and landscape scales to benefits for nature and society. Novel long-term sandy solutions will be examined using this pathways method, identifying tipping points that may exist if distinct strategies are being continued. Crucial elements for the construction of adaptive pathways are 1) a clear view on the long-term feasibility of different nourishment alternatives, and 2) solid, science-based quantification methods for integral evaluation of the social, economic, morphological and ecological outcomes of various pathways. As currently both elements are lacking, we propose to erect a Living Lab for Climate Adaptation within the C-SCAPE project. In this Living Lab, specific attention is paid to the socio-economic implications of the nourished landscape, as we examine how morphological and ecological development of the large-scale nourishment strategies and their design choices (e.g. concentrated vs alongshore uniform, subaqueous vs subaerial, geomorphological features like artificial lagoons) translate to social acceptance.
A world where technology is ubiquitous and embedded in our daily lives is becoming increasingly likely. To prepare our students to live and work in such a future, we propose to turn Saxion’s Epy-Drost building into a living lab environment. This will entail setting up and drafting the proper infrastructure and agreements to collect people’s location and building data (e.g. temperature, humidity) in Epy-Drost, and making the data appropriately available to student and research projects within Saxion. With regards to this project’s effect on education, we envision the proposal of several derived student projects which will provide students the opportunity to work with huge amounts of data and state-of-the-art natural interaction interfaces. Through these projects, students will acquire skills and knowledge that are necessary in the current and future labor-market, as well as get experience in working with topics of great importance now and in the near future. This is not only aligned with the Creative Media and Game Technologies (CMGT) study program’s new vision and focus on interactive technology, but also with many other education programs within Saxion. In terms of research, the candidate Postdoc will study if and how the data, together with the building’s infrastructure, can be leveraged to promote healthy behavior through playful strategies. In other words, whether we can persuade people in the building to be more physically active and engage more in social interactions through data-based gamification and building actuation. This fits very well with the Ambient Intelligence (AmI) research group’s agenda in Augmented Interaction, and CMGT’s User Experience line. Overall, this project will help spark and solidify lasting collaboration links between AmI and CMGT, give body to AmI’s new Augmented Interaction line, and increase Saxion’s level of education through the dissemination of knowledge between researchers, teachers and students.
How can European migration, between countries and within countries between regions, contribute to the development of vulnerable regions in Europe? This is the central question of project Premium_EU (Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union), which is financed by Horizon Europe.The key goal of Premium_EU is the development of a Regional Policy Dashboard for national and regional policy makers to help them in the formulation of new policies aimed at the potential of migration to enhance the development of vulnerable regions. The Dashboard combines all available knowledge of three domains in three modules: the Mobility Module, the Regional Development Effects Module, and the Policy Module.The Mobility Module includes both past trends and projections and scenarios, in addition to new mobility estimates based on data from social media usage, such as LinkedIn and Facebook. The module also includes qualitative information from case studies on specific types of mobility groups, such as Polish seasonal workers, or Turkish migrants to EU countries. These trends, projections and case studies will be summarized in a regional typology on the basis of the mobility profile of the region.In the Regional Development Effects Module all available data on regional development is summarized in a regional development typology, where regional development is interpreted much broader than economic development. Using causal models the role of regional mobility in regional development will be established.In the Policy Module all possible forms of regional policies will be collected and linked to the mobility- and regional development characteristics of the region.The Dashboard integrates these modules so that a policy maker, on the basis of the unique mobility and regional development profile of his or her region is able to make an evidence based choice out of a relevant set of policy options. Users of the Dashboard will also be able to add their experiences to the Dashboard, so that other users can benefit from their knowledge.
