Background: Prognosis of acute idiopathic neck pain is poor. An overview of modifiable and non-modifiable prognostic factors for the development of chronic musculoskeletal neck pain after an episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain is needed. Objective: Identify prognostic factors for pain intensity and perceived non-recovery at three, six and 12 months after a first episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. Study design: Systematic review METHODS: Systematic literature search up to October 21, 2017 for prospective prognostic studies with main outcomes perceived non-recovery and pain intensity. The QUIPS was used for quality assessment. Results: Out of 2737 screened articles six prospective studies with high-risk-of-bias were identified, analyzing 47 and 43 factors for the outcome variables 'pain intensity' and 'perceived non-recovery', respectively. Based on univariate- and multivariate analyses we found moderate evidence for 'age> 40 years' and 'concomitant back pain' to be prognostic for 'pain intensity'. For the outcome 'perceived non-recovery' at 12 months, we found moderate evidence for both 'a previous period of neck pain' and 'accompanying headache' as prognostic variables for persistent pain, based on univariate analysis. No prognostic factor was found which was retained in more than one multivariate analysis for the outcome variable 'perceived non-recovery'. However, the quality of the evidence for these prognostic factors was low to very low. Conclusion: This review identifies prognostic factors for neck pain, of which only a few are modifiable. Further research is needed before drawing definite conclusions about the prognostic value of these factors.
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It is important for caregivers and patients to know which wounds are at risk of prolonged wound healing to enable timely communication and treatment. Available prognostic models predict wound healing in chronic ulcers, but not in acute wounds, that is, originating after trauma or surgery. We developed a model to detect which factors can predict (prolonged) healing of complex acute wounds in patients treated in a large wound expertise centre (WEC). Using Cox and linear regression analyses, we determined which patient- and wound-related characteristics best predict time to complete wound healing and derived a prediction formula to estimate how long this may take. We selected 563 patients with acute wounds, documented in the WEC registry between 2007 and 2012. Wounds had existed for a median of 19 days (range 6-46 days). The majority of these were located on the leg (52%). Five significant independent predictors of prolonged wound healing were identified: wound location on the trunk [hazard ratio (HR) 0·565, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·405-0·788; P = 0·001], wound infection (HR 0·728, 95% CI 0·534-0·991; P = 0·044), wound size (HR 0·993, 95% CI 0·988-0·997; P = 0·001), wound duration (HR 0·998, 95% CI 0·996-0·999; P = 0·005) and patient's age (HR 1·009, 95% CI 1·001-1·018; P = 0·020), but not diabetes. Awareness of the five factors predicting the healing of complex acute wounds, particularly wound infection and location on the trunk, may help caregivers to predict wound healing time and to detect, refer and focus on patients who need additional attention.
Background Identify and establish consensus regarding potential prognostic factors for the development of chronic pain after a first episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain. Design This study used two consensus group methods: a modified Nominal Group (m-NGT) and a Delphi Technique. Methods The goal of the m-NGT was to obtain and categorize a list of potential modifiable prognostic factors. These factors were presented to a multidisciplinary panel in a two-round Delphi survey, which was conducted between November 2018 and January 2020. The participants were asked whether factors identified are of prognostic value, whether these factors are modifiable, and how to measure these factors in clinical practice. Consensus was a priori defined as 70% agreement among participants. Results Eighty-four factors were identified and grouped into seven categories during the expert meeting using the modified NGT. A workgroup reduced the list to 47 factors and grouped them into 12 categories. Of these factors, 26 were found to be potentially prognostic for chronification of neck pain (> 70% agreement). Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be potentially modifiable by physiotherapists based on a two-round Delphi survey. Conclusion Based on an expert meeting (m-NGT) and a two-round Delphi survey, our study documents consensus (> 70%) on 26 prognostic factors. Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be modifiable, and most factors were psychological in nature.
