Contribution and presentation at the International Conference on Population Geographies - Groningen, June 2013.
There is increasing evidence that humans are not living sustainably. There are three major drivers of the unsustainable approach: population, consumption and the growth economy. There is widespread denial about these issues, but they clearly need to be addressed if we are to achieve any of the possible sustainable futures. The first and second versions of the ‘World Scientists Warning to Humanity’ both highlight the problem of increasing human population, as do the IPCC and IPBES reports. However, all have been largely ignored. The size of an ecologically sustainable global population is considered, taking into account the implications of increasing per capita consumption. The paper then discusses the reasons why society and academia largely ignore overpopulation. The claim that discussing overpopulation is ‘anti-human’ is refuted. Causal Layered Analysis is used to examine why society ignores data that do not fit with its myths and metaphors, and how such denial is leading society towards collapse. Non-coercive solutions are then considered to reach an ecologically-sustainable human population. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/helenkopnina/
MULTIFILE
The so called Second Demographic Transition (Lesthaeghe and Van der Kaa, 1986), which surfaced in the sixties of the twentieth century in Western Europe and North America, resulted from a significant change in the pattern of norms and values. This again resulted in delayed fertility, a declining population when there was no replenishment through "replacement migration” and an increasing variety of household structures (with a rising number of one-person households). The rise in life expectancy coupled with a declining fertility, evolved into a gradual ageing of the population.The concept of ‘unbalanced population decline’ (Van Nimwegen and Heering 2009) enables us, while studying population decline, to take into account different motives underlying the decision to migrate during the life course; young people migrating in search of higher education and job opportunities and elderly clustering in places with a high facility level. This unbalanced population decline is taking place in some rural parts and smaller towns in the Netherlands. Especially the two migration flows mentioned above determine the structure of the population and the possibilities for effective family, kin and other social support systems for the elderly.Method:Analysis using amongst others recent demographic data from de community of Oldambt (Netherlands)Results:It will be shown that the effects of the demographic transition in the North of the Netherlands are accelerated because of unbalanced population decline. Furthermore it will be argued that because of this combination in parts of the Northern Netherlands family, kin and social support systems for the elderly are deteriorating more rapidly than in other parts of the county.Conclusion:Combined effects of demographic transition and unbalanced population decline urge for a reconsideration of the possibilities to rely on family, kin and other social support systems in different regions in the Netherlands.
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We live in a time of radical changes in Europe. The climate crisis, the war in Ukraine, energy crisis, the pandemic, increasedprice levels and interest rates, digitalization, robotization, reduced birth rates, an aging population, migration, a decliningdemocracy index and increasing friction level between continents and powerful states makes us uncertain about tomorrow.Deglobalization, shorter production lines, changed export models, bloc formations and sovereignty might be results of someof the large challenges we see today. We see tendencies towards increasing poverty and a declining middle class. It isperhaps more important than ever in recent times to show optimism on behalf of young people and future generations.European cooperation and the link between the right skills for the right future seems to be more actual and important thanever. A report from McKinsey Global Institute (2017) about future work life, competence development and digitalization,shows that approximately 50 % of todays jobs can disappear in the nearest future caused digitalization, robotization and AI.MGI’s in-dept report have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries (mckinsey.com). We have also a commonEuropean challenge reagarding too many youth outside the working life. The NEET index (Not in Employment, Education orTraining) was 14 % totally for the EU countries, 9.6 % for Germany, 6.3 % for Netherlands and also 6.3 % for Norway in2021 (ssb.no).This is a challenge we have to solve as we need to increase the work participation as welfare costs willincrease as a consequence of more immigration and several older people.
