Both because of the shortcomings of existing risk assessment methodologies, as well as newly available tools to predict hazard and risk with machine learning approaches, there has been an emerging emphasis on probabilistic risk assessment. Increasingly sophisticated AI models can be applied to a plethora of exposure and hazard data to obtain not only predictions for particular endpoints but also to estimate the uncertainty of the risk assessment outcome. This provides the basis for a shift from deterministic to more probabilistic approaches but comes at the cost of an increased complexity of the process as it requires more resources and human expertise. There are still challenges to overcome before a probabilistic paradigm is fully embraced by regulators. Based on an earlier white paper (Maertens et al., 2022), a workshop discussed the prospects, challenges and path forward for implementing such AI-based probabilistic hazard assessment. Moving forward, we will see the transition from categorized into probabilistic and dose-dependent hazard outcomes, the application of internal thresholds of toxicological concern for data-poor substances, the acknowledgement of user-friendly open-source software, a rise in the expertise of toxicologists required to understand and interpret artificial intelligence models, and the honest communication of uncertainty in risk assessment to the public.
Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) are conceptual frameworks that tie an initial perturbation (molecular initiat- ing event) to a phenotypic toxicological manifestation (adverse outcome), through a series of steps (key events). They provide therefore a standardized way to map and organize toxicological mechanistic information. As such, AOPs inform on key events underlying toxicity, thus supporting the development of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), which aim to reduce the use of animal testing for toxicology purposes. However, the establishment of a novel AOP relies on the gathering of multiple streams of evidence and infor- mation, from available literature to knowledge databases. Often, this information is in the form of free text, also called unstructured text, which is not immediately digestible by a computer. This information is thus both tedious and increasingly time-consuming to process manually with the growing volume of data available. The advance- ment of machine learning provides alternative solutions to this challenge. To extract and organize information from relevant sources, it seems valuable to employ deep learning Natural Language Processing techniques. We review here some of the recent progress in the NLP field, and show how these techniques have already demonstrated value in the biomedical and toxicology areas. We also propose an approach to efficiently and reliably extract and combine relevant toxicological information from text. This data can be used to map underlying mechanisms that lead to toxicological effects and start building quantitative models, in particular AOPs, ultimately allowing animal-free human-based hazard and risk assessment.
Summary: Xpaths is a collection of algorithms that allow for the prediction of compound-induced molecular mechanisms of action by integrating phenotypic endpoints of different species; and proposes follow-up tests for model organisms to validate these pathway predictions. The Xpaths algorithms are applied to predict developmental and reproductive toxicity (DART) and implemented into an in silico platform, called DARTpaths.
