This paper seeks to highlight underlying issues of the tourism system that have led to tourism extremes of too much or too little tourism. Five phases are recognized that reflect different ways of dealing with too much tourism over time, after which the impact of a sudden lack of tourism is investigated in light of future renewal processes. This discussion highlights the remarkable capacity of the tourism industry to adjust to rapidly changing circumstances and crises, even when these cause anguish to individuals and within societies at large. The paper thus seeks to contextualize the current discussions regarding the transformation of tourism post COVID-19. It highlights the complexity of changing a tourism that multiple stakeholders depend on or have grown accustomed to. To come to a more balanced tourism, it is necessary to not only come up with alternative visions and strategies, but also to engage with the political economy nature of tourism development. A future research agenda should therefore also discuss facets of entangled power, social exclusion, inequalities and class differences to come to new reference points of what actually constitutes a more inclusive tourism success.
MULTIFILE
The challenge of mitigating climate change is critical to desirable tourism transportation futures, although to date relatively little attention has been paid to this aspect of sustainable tourism. This introductory article to the special issues on ‘Desirable Tourism Transport Futures’ explores approaches to transitioning the tourism sector to a sustainable emissions path. It starts by describing an undesirable tourism transport future associated with a business-as-usual scenario, which will inevitably cause the climate mitigation goals outlined in the Paris Climate Accord to soon become unattainable. We then outline a scenario for a climatically desirable future, and its social and economic implications. It is important that desirable tourism transport futures are critically considered in terms of both spatial and temporal scale. The scenarios that inform this editorial provide some insights at the long-term macro-scale. These scenarios are associated with desirable and undesirable elements that will no doubt continue to be the subject of much debate and contestation. While these scenarios will represent both opportunities and threats to the full spectrum of tourism industry stakeholders, they should also inform manifold avenues of future research at a critical moment in the evolution of tourism transportation and the pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
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The general aim of this research project has been to examine this phenomenon of tourism flow switching and consider the factors driving the geopolitical instability that can compromise destination security. On a more practical level the research has also examined what the reactions of Dutch tourists are to security threats affecting their tourism decisions and looked at the development of preventive measures against attacks by destinations and travel organisations. Finally, the research on the regional geopolitics of the MENA and European areas have together with the attitudes of Dutch tourists towards destination security been used as inputs into a scenario planning process involving the steering group of tour operators who originally commissioned this research, as participants. This process has focussed on macro environmental analysis, identification of key uncertainties, and the development of resilient strategies for the future.
PBL is the initiator of the Work Programme Monitoring and Management Circular Economy 2019-2023, a collaboration between CBS, CML, CPB, RIVM, TNO, UU. Holidays and mobility are part of the consumption domains that PBL researches, and this project aims to calculate the environmental gains per person per year of the various circular behavioural options for both holiday behaviour and daily mobility. For both behaviours, a range of typical (default) trips are defined and for each several circular option explored for CO2 emissions, Global warming potential and land use. The holiday part is supplied by the Centre for Sustainability, Tourism and Transport (CSTT) of the BUas Academy of Tourism (AfT). The mobility part is carried out by the Urban Intelligence professorship of the Academy for Built Environment and Logistics (ABEL).The research question is “what is the environmental impact of various circular (behavioural) options around 1) holidays and 2) passenger mobility?” The consumer perspective is demarcated as follows:For holidays, transportation and accommodation are included, but not food, attractions visited and holiday activitiesFor mobility, it concerns only the circular options of passenger transport and private means of transport (i.e. freight transport, business travel and commuting are excluded). Not only some typical trips will be evaluated, but also the possession of a car and its alternatives.For the calculations, we make use of public databases, our own models and the EAP (Environmental Analysis Program) model developed by the University of Groningen. BUAs projectmembers: Centre for Sustainability, Tourism and Transport (AT), Urban Intelligence (ABEL).
Since March 2013, Paul Peeters is a member of the ICAO/CAEP Working Group 3, which is responsible for setting a new fuel efficiency standard for of civil aviation. He does so for the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation (ICSA). ICSA was established in 1998 by a group of national and international environmental NGOs as official observers. Since its inception, ICSA has contributed to CAEP’s work on technical means to reduce emissions and noise, the role of market-based measures, supporting economic and environmental analysis, modelling and forecasting, and ICAO’s carbon calculator. It has also been invited to present its views at ICAO workshops on carbon markets and bio-fuels, and has presented to the high-level Group on Internation Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC). ICSA uses the expertise within its NGO membership to formulate its co-ordinated positions. To gain the broadest level of understanding and input from environmental NGOs, ICSA communicates with, and invites comment from, other NGO networks and bodies working in related areas. ICSA’s participation in ICAO and CAEP meetings is currently provided by the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF), the International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Transport and Environment (T&E). See http://www.icsa-aviation.org
Client: Blue Plan regional activity centre (UNEP/MAP), subcontracted through TEC Conseille, Marseille As part of a regional workshop organized by the Blue Plan in July 2008, one of the conclusions of the Group "Tourism and Climate Change” was the need for saving energy in tourism transportation and particularly of air transport, as air transport is responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions caused by tourism. In the period 1998-2005, the share of international arrivals by air in the Mediterranean area rose from 23% to 40%, respectively, or in numbers, from 47 to 122 million tourists. Some countries, particularly islands, almost entirely depend on air transport for their international tourism. For example in 2005 air transport is used by 87%, 78%, 73%, 64% and 51% of international tourists arriving in, respectively, Israel, Egypt, Spain, Tunisia and Morocco. According to Plan Bleu forecasts on international arrivals, assuming that the share of air transport remains the same, the number of tourists travelling by plane will reach over 158 million by 2025. Given the role of aviation in the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), such a development is clearly not sustainable in the light of the necessary reduction of emissions to avoid dangerous climate change. The overall aim of the study is to inform policy makers and entrepreneurs in both destination and in origin countries, on possible options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from air travel, while at the same time not impairing the economic development of tourism. To do this, CSTT has developed a tourism scenario model for all countries with Mediterranean coasts describing inbound and outbound international tourism and domestic tourism by all available transport modes and giving both contributions to GDP and total GHG emissions. This model responses to global mitigation policies (increasing the cost of carbon emissions) as well as national policies (taxes, subsidies and changes in transport quality per transport mode). Using the model both global and national policies can be assessed as well as the risks of global mitigation policies for specific countries.
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