The full potential of predictive maintenance has not yet been utilised. Current solutions focus on individual steps of the predictive maintenance cycle and only work for very specific settings. The overarching challenge of predictive maintenance is to leverage these individual building blocks to obtain a framework that supports optimal maintenance and asset management. The PrimaVera project has identified four obstacles to tackle in order to utilise predictive maintenance at its full potential: lack of orchestration and automation of the predictive maintenance workflow, inaccurate or incomplete data and the role of human and organisational factors in data-driven decision support tools. Furthermore, an intuitive generic applicable predictive maintenance process model is presented in this paper to provide a structured way of deploying predictive maintenance solutions https://doi.org/10.3390/app10238348 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-bolte-0856134/
The full potential of predictive maintenance has not yet been utilised. Current solutions focus on individual steps of the predictive maintenance cycle and only work for very specific settings. The overarching challenge of predictive maintenance is to leverage these individual building blocks to obtain a framework that supports optimal maintenance and asset management. The PrimaVera project has identified four obstacles to tackle in order to utilise predictive maintenance at its full potential: lack of orchestration and automation of the predictive maintenance workflow, inaccurate or incomplete data and the role of human and organisational factors in data-driven decision support tools. Furthermore, an intuitive generic applicable predictive maintenance process model is presented in this paper to provide a structured way of deploying predictive maintenance solutions.
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Optimization of aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) operations has been of high interest in recent years for both the knowledge institutions and the industrial community as a total of approximately $70 billion has been spent on MRO activities in 2018 which represents around 10% of an airline’s annual operational cost (IATA, 2019). Moreover, the aircraft MRO tasks vary from routine inspections to heavy overhauls and are typically characterized by unpredictable process times and material requirements. Especially nowadays due to the unprecedent COVID-19 crisis, the aviation sector is facing significant challenges, and the MRO companies strive to strengthen their competitive position and respond to the increasing demand for more efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable processes. Currently, most maintenance strategies employ preventive maintenance as an industrial standard, which is based on fixed and predetermined schedules. Preventive maintenance is a long-time preferred strategy, due to increased flight safety and relatively simple implementation (Phillips et al., 2010). However, its main drawback stems from the fact that the actual time of failure and the replacement interval of a component are hard to predict resulting in an inevitable suboptimal utilization of material and labor. This has two repercussions: first, the reduced availability of assets, the reduced capacity of maintenance facilities, and the increased costs for both the MRO provider and the operator. Second, the increased waste from an environmental standpoint, as the suboptimal use of assets, is also associated with wasted remaining lifetime for aircraft parts which are replaced, while this isn’t yet necessary (e.g., Nguyen et al., 2019).The recently introduced, condition-based maintenance (CBM) and predictive maintenance (PdM) data-driven strategies aim to reduce maintenance costs, maxi-mize availability, and contribute to sustainable operations by offering tailored pro-grams that can potentially result in optimally planned, just-in-time maintenance meaning reduction in material waste and unneeded inspections.
In order to stay competitive and respond to the increasing demand for steady and predictable aircraft turnaround times, process optimization has been identified by Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) SMEs in the aviation industry as their key element for innovation. Indeed, MRO SMEs have always been looking for options to organize their work as efficient as possible, which often resulted in applying lean business organization solutions. However, their aircraft maintenance processes stay characterized by unpredictable process times and material requirements. Lean business methodologies are unable to change this fact. This problem is often compensated by large buffers in terms of time, personnel and parts, leading to a relatively expensive and inefficient process. To tackle this problem of unpredictability, MRO SMEs want to explore the possibilities of data mining: the exploration and analysis of large quantities of their own historical maintenance data, with the meaning of discovering useful knowledge from seemingly unrelated data. Ideally, it will help predict failures in the maintenance process and thus better anticipate repair times and material requirements. With this, MRO SMEs face two challenges. First, the data they have available is often fragmented and non-transparent, while standardized data availability is a basic requirement for successful data analysis. Second, it is difficult to find meaningful patterns within these data sets because no operative system for data mining exists in the industry. This RAAK MKB project is initiated by the Aviation Academy of the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (Hogeschool van Amsterdan, hereinafter: HvA), in direct cooperation with the industry, to help MRO SMEs improve their maintenance process. Its main aim is to develop new knowledge of - and a method for - data mining. To do so, the current state of data presence within MRO SMEs is explored, mapped, categorized, cleaned and prepared. This will result in readable data sets that have predictive value for key elements of the maintenance process. Secondly, analysis principles are developed to interpret this data. These principles are translated into an easy-to-use data mining (IT)tool, helping MRO SMEs to predict their maintenance requirements in terms of costs and time, allowing them to adapt their maintenance process accordingly. In several case studies these products are tested and further improved. This is a resubmission of an earlier proposal dated October 2015 (3rd round) entitled ‘Data mining for MRO process optimization’ (number 2015-03-23M). We believe the merits of the proposal are substantial, and sufficient to be awarded a grant. The text of this submission is essentially unchanged from the previous proposal. Where text has been added – for clarification – this has been marked in yellow. Almost all of these new text parts are taken from our rebuttal (hoor en wederhoor), submitted in January 2016.
Predictive maintenance, using data of thousands of sensors already available, is key for optimizing the maintenance schedule and further prevention of unexpected failures in industry. Current maintenance concepts (in the maritime industry) are based on a fixed maintenance interval for each piece of equipment with enough safety margin to minimize incidents. This means that maintenance is most of the time carried out too early and sometimes too late. This is in particular true for maintenance on maritime equipment, where onshore maintenance is strongly preferred over offshore maintenance and needs to be aligned with the vessel’s operations schedule. However, state-of-the-art predictive maintenance methods rely on black-box machine learning techniques such as deep neural networks that are difficult to interpret and are difficult to accept and work with for the maintenance engineers. The XAIPre project (pronounce “Xyper”) aims at developing Explainable Predictive Maintenance (XPdM) algorithms that do not only provide the engineers with a prediction but in addition, with 1) a risk analysis on the components when delaying the maintenance, and 2) what the primary indicators are that the algorithms used to create inference. To use predictive maintenance effectively in Maritime operations, the predictive models and the optimization of the maintenance schedule using these models, need to be aware of the past and planned vessel activities, since different activities affect the lifetime of the machines differently. For example, the degradation of a hydraulic pump inside a crane depends on the type of operations the crane performs. Thus, the models do not only need to be explainable but they also need to be aware of the context which is in this case the vessel and machinery activity. Using sensor data processing and edge-computing technologies that will be developed and applied by the Hanze UAS in Groningen, context information is extracted from the raw sensor data. The XAIPre project combines these Explainable Context Aware Machine Learning models with state-of-the-art optimizers, that we already developed in the NWO CIMPLO project at LIACS, in order to develop optimal maintenance schedules for machine components. The optimizers will be adapted to fit within XAIPre. The resulting XAIPre prototype offers significant competitive advantages for companies such as Heerema, by increasing the longevity of machine components, increasing worker safety, and decreasing maintenance costs. XAIPre will focus on the predictive maintenance of thrusters, which is a key sub-system with regards to maintenance as it is a core part of the vessels station keeping capabilities. Periodic maintenance is currently required in fixed intervals of 5 years. XPdM can provide a solid base to deviate from the Periodic Maintenance prescriptions to reduce maintenance costs while maintaining quality. Scaling up to include additional components and systems after XAIPre will be relatively straightforward due to the accumulated knowledge of the predictive maintenance process and the delivered methods. Although the XAIPre system will be evaluated on the use-cases of Heerema, many components of the system can be utilized across industries to save maintenance costs, maximize worker safety and optimize sustainability.
Predictive maintenance, using data of thousands of sensors already available, is key for optimizing the maintenance schedule and further prevention of unexpected failures in industry.Current maintenance concepts (in the maritime industry) are based on a fixed maintenance interval for each piece of equipment with enough safety margin to minimize incidents. This means that maintenance is most of the time carried out too early and sometimes too late. This is in particular true for maintenance on maritime equipment, where onshore maintenance is strongly preferred over offshore maintenance and needs to be aligned with the vessel’s operations schedule. However, state-of-the-art predictive maintenance methods rely on black-box machine learning techniques such as deep neural networks that are difficult to interpret and are difficult to accept and work with for the maintenance engineers. The XAIPre project (pronounce Xyper) aims at developing Explainable Predictive Maintenance algorithms that do not only provide the engineers with a prediction but in addition, with a risk analysis on the components when delaying the maintenance, and what the primary indicators are that the algorithms use to create inference. To use predictive maintenance effectively in Maritime operations, the predictive models and also the optimization of the maintenance schedule using these models, need to be aware of the past and planned vessel activities, since different activities affect the lifetime of the machines differently. For example, the degradation of a hydraulic pump inside a crane depends on the type of operations the crane but also the vessel is performing. Thus the models do not only need to be explainable but they also need to be aware of the context which is in this case the vessel and machinery activity. Using sensor data processing and edge-computing technologies that will be developed and applied by the Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen (Hanze UAS), context information is extracted from the raw sensor data. The XAIPre project combines these Explainable Context Aware Machine Learning models with state-of-the-art optimizers, that are already developed and available from the NWO CIMPLO project at LIACS, in order to develop optimal maintenance schedules for machine components. The resulting XAIPre prototype offers significant competitive advantages for maritime companies such as Heerema, by increasing the longevity of machine components, increasing worker safety and decreasing maintenance costs.
